William Goodhind is an investigator and researcher with Contested Floor, an open-access analysis challenge that conducts satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation on warfare and armed battle. William beforehand labored with the OSCE Particular Monitoring Mission to Ukraine as a Monitoring Officer, patrol chief and imagery analyst between 2015-17 and 2020-22. He was additionally an OSCE observer in Ukraine’s presidential elections in 2019. For the reason that outbreak of Russia’s full-scale warfare in 2022, William has labored on warfare crimes investigation and army evaluation. He’s a deployable civilian professional with the Overseas and Commonwealth Workplace. Earlier in his profession, William was a civil servant with the UK Ministry of Defence and Cupboard Workplace.
The place do you see essentially the most thrilling analysis/debates occurring in your discipline?
Digital applied sciences are having a profound impact on how we, as members of the general public and civil society, can observe, monitor, and analyse armed battle. Russia’s warfare towards Ukraine has seen the fast democratisation of knowledge – an exponential progress within the availability of photos, movies, datasets and mapping, every detailing wartime developments at an intimate and sometimes first-hand degree. These applied sciences aren’t new, however there has nonetheless been a seismic shift within the ubiquity of knowledge, in digital inter-connectivity, and the straightforward bandwidth capability to share multimedia recordsdata between handheld units. That is due to this fact an thrilling time for information analytics – how we collate, interpret, and use this information, with implications for tutorial scholarship, authorized observe, and journalism.
By way of Contested Floor, my work centres on the evaluation of open-source satellite tv for pc imagery to doc observations that maintain army, political or humanitarian significance. Simply as with different digital applied sciences, the distant sensing discipline can also be going through questions of finest observe, information integrity and novel approaches to its utility. In academia, numerous analysis has been completed on methodological improvements, similar to in object identification, change detection, and Synthetic Intelligence-assisted processing. However I’ve seen much less of an emphasis on the first information potential of satellite tv for pc imagery. I’m encouraging students in worldwide relations to think about how imagery as an empirical useful resource can help or problem theories and conceptualisations of warfare: its origins, causes, junctures, traits, and the timing and penalties of state actions.
How has the best way you perceive the world modified over time, and what (or who) prompted essentially the most important shifts in your considering?
A seminal second for me was 9/11 and watching on TV as planes hit the World Commerce Centre in New York. It was a horrifying, tragic and enraging spectacle. Up till that time, worldwide affairs, and politics typically, was on the periphery of my pursuits. Afterwards, I began to observe worldwide relations extra intently. On the College of Sussex, I discovered about securitisation, the humanitarian crucial, democratic peace concept, genocide research, and the politics of rentier states. Nevertheless, trying again at the moment, my reflections on armed battle thereafter have been too narrowly centered. What with the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism took centre stage in tutorial and public discourse for the very best a part of a decade. I used to be a product of that point, the place uneven warfare and ‘small wars’ dominated thought and observe.
Russia’s unlawful annexation of Crimea and invasion of Japanese Ukraine in 2014 prompted a sea-change in my considering. Hybrid and non-linear warfare have been now the in-vogue phrases, and the insurgency/terrorism duo have been comparatively outdated information. We have been again to covert operations, tank battles, artillery barrages, trench warfare, and territorial conquests, all certain up in Russia’s ‘(im)believable deniability’ that it had nothing to do with these occasions. My appreciation of geopolitics and army technique broadened, transferring past the Afghanistan and Iraq epoch. But it surely was my deployment to Japanese Ukraine with the OSCE Particular Monitoring Mission that basically introduced all of it collectively.
Being a Monitoring Officer on the bottom in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts noticed concept and observe coalesce. This was essentially the most important shift in my worldview. My first two years in Ukraine, spent nearly fully in separatist-held territories, gave me a novel and sobering perspective on the realities of warfare. It taught me, for instance, that peacebuilding as a hypothetical subject in a classroom could be very totally different when on the frontline, at minus 20 levels Celsius and with gunfire close by. This isn’t to devalue tutorial endeavour, fairly the alternative. To turn into a greater, well-rounded practitioner, you could have either side of the coin: a basis of concept and data, complemented by real-world expertise.
What impressed you to create the web site “Contested Floor” and concentrate on satellite tv for pc imagery investigations within the Russia-Ukraine warfare?
I felt that extra may very well be completed to convey satellite tv for pc imagery into the general public area. A wealth of data is freely out there on-line, however it may be tough to know the place to search for particular case research and the right way to interpret what you discover. I’m serving to to bridge this hole. Contested Floor as a analysis sequence is all about data seize and creation. I take uncooked satellite tv for pc imagery and package deal it in an accessible format and with contextual element that provides analytical worth.
After all, Russia’s full-scale warfare was a singular driver in my choice to create Contested Floor. On condition that I had lived and labored in Japanese Ukraine, I used to be nicely positioned to publish imagery evaluation on Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. It was a skillset I had already tried and examined. Earlier than I evacuated to the UK in February 2022, I used to be assigned to the OSCE’s Imagery Evaluation Cell in Kyiv. It was right here that I analysed UAV and long-range drone footage taken by monitoring groups within the discipline. Having returned to the UK, and newly impressed by civil society’s surge of help to research Russia’s warfare crimes, I wished to do the identical, however utilizing satellite tv for pc imagery.
What do you take into account to be the broader function of worldwide organizations in monitoring and reporting on conflicts, significantly within the context of the Russia-Ukraine warfare?
Worldwide organisations have a vastly vital function in figuring out floor fact. The OSCE Particular Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, for instance, had entry to areas, officers and affected peoples nicely past the attain of most governments, journalists, and NGOs. With out this worldwide presence, the occupied territories of Japanese Ukraine would have been a near-total info blackout. Whereas the OSCE Mission closed in 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine continues to function, and its nation studies are extremely regarded. Likewise, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company’s (IAEA) monitoring of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant retains a working watch on Russia’s unlawful seizure of the plant and related security considerations. And I might be remiss if I didn’t point out the OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism, a fact-finding and professional evaluation device, which has been invoked 5 occasions since 2022.
Taken a face worth, this monitoring and reporting exercise is susceptible to being diminished to easily recording and verifying occasions (albeit in complicated and generally harmful settings). However to border it as solely reportage omits one other vital dimension: affect. Having a bodily presence on the bottom, and publishing for a world viewers, can affect the behaviours of state and non-state actors engaged in combating. This second-order impact of multilateral deployments shouldn’t be at all times given the credit score it’s due. Monitoring can have a tangible, constructive impression in battle administration on the native degree, along with its function as a feed for diplomatic discussions in New York, Vienna and elsewhere.
What sorts of info and proof do you intention to uncover via your investigations? How do you imagine satellite tv for pc imagery contributes to a greater understanding of the battle?
Satellite tv for pc imagery gives a useful alternative to watch locations that could be inaccessible on account of political, logistical or safety challenges. In battle environments, it’s a necessary device in understanding the geospatial and temporal dimensions of hostilities. Furthermore, being able to view places throughout time helps to chop via the knowledge warfare at play in authorities statements, social media, and the press. It’s, in case you like, an antidote to dis-, mis- and mal-information. We are able to interrogate the veracity of claims and see for ourselves how sure occasions occurred or developed.
I predominantly analysis Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, from 2014 to current. Most of my evaluation is on army affairs: figuring out concentrations of troops, the situation of firing factors, adjustments alongside the entrance line, damages prompted to civilian objects, or establishing a baseline understanding of exercise in an space. The studies I publish assist as an instance behaviours or actions, function reference factors to help imagery evaluation, or make clear noteworthy case research. These may very well be used, for instance, to help tutorial enquiry into Russia’s army technique, to probe the idea of New Era Warfare, or evaluation the, now defunct, Minsk peace processes. Alternatively, the studies spotlight satellite tv for pc imagery that may very well be used as direct or circumstantial proof in authorized proceedings. On this context, they’re a type of open supply proof, offering constructing blocks or beginning factors for investigations and case constructing.
Are you able to share some examples of great findings you could have made via your satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation in relation to the Russia-Ukraine warfare? How do you make sure the accuracy of your digital proof?
My pleasure! One topic I’ve explored intimately is proof of Russia’s materiel help to the so-called ‘Individuals’s Republics’ in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. As my remit contains the sooner years of Russia’s army marketing campaign in Ukraine, I draw on an archive of images that goes all the best way again to 2014. This aligns with the Worldwide Prison Courtroom’s investigative timeframe of “alleged crimes dedicated within the context of [the] state of affairs in Ukraine since 21 November 2013”, in addition to ongoing instances within the European Courtroom of Human Rights (ECHR). For nearly a decade, the Russian state held firmly to the road that it was not an energetic participant of the warfare and that the ‘Republics’ have been a homegrown phenomenon. Observations in satellite tv for pc imagery present in any other case. A extra detailed research is ongoing, however I’ve revealed on a Russian provide base on the worldwide border that was energetic between 2014 and 2018, in addition to important caches of ammunition and supply convoys in occupied-Luhansk. These case research, amongst others, level to a complicated cross-border logistical operation that sustained, skilled and outfitted Russia’s proxy forces in Ukraine.
Turning to occasions for the reason that full-scale warfare, I’ve mapped out artillery and rocket firing factors throughout the Siege of Mariupol in April 2022, which assist us to grasp the sorts of forces current and when sure actions happened. And, in my first studies for Contested Floor, I analysed Russia’s fast militarisation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP) between March and July 2022. Different studies have extra of an illustrative function than an investigative one. Supposed to situate the reader, I’ve revealed on Morozovsk Airbase, Russian Navy in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, and Russian trench methods in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
For all my studies, I be certain that the findings may be verified and replicated. I embrace detailed technical metadata on the picture’s supply, satellite tv for pc positioning, and scene specs. I additionally cross-reference with open-source analytical reporting, similar to from the Institute for the Research of Battle, and army management mapping of the entrance line.
How do you collaborate with academia, policymakers, authorized practitioners, or different sources to additional your analysis? What implications does this collaboration have for them?
Most just lately, I’ve been collaborating with The Washington Put up and their visible forensics group as they conduct investigations on the warfare in Gaza. I analysed imagery for 2 articles – one regarding an airstrike on Palestinian journalists, and one other on the loss of life of a younger woman. In each instances, I used to be given solely rudimentary particulars on the story being researched, which allowed me to strategy the duty in an goal, unbiased method. I believe that is the place satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation has an actual energy in that it may be completed independently by third events and with a contemporary perspective.
Individually, I used to be interviewed earlier this 12 months by Visegrad Perception, a Warsaw-based coverage evaluation platform, on the longer term course of warfare crimes investigation. This was a part of my efforts to advertise imagery evaluation as a technique. And, in the same vein, I delivered a workshop on 16 Could for the British Worldwide Research Affiliation (BISA), discussing the info potential of satellite tv for pc imagery for lecturers and illustrating with examples from Russia and Ukraine. All of this, together with outreach with journalists and networking with authorized groups, is completed to foster connections throughout communities and facilitate info sharing.
What challenges or obstacles have you ever encountered throughout your satellite tv for pc imagery investigations? How do you deal with these points?
If utilizing industrial imagery, the primary problem is price. A single picture can have a price ticket of something from £500 to £1000 (€585-€1170), and there’s no assure that it’ll yield outcomes. Furthermore, most of the bigger imagery suppliers presently have an embargo on protection of Ukraine, for safety causes. In contrast, Google Earth has Very Excessive Decision (VHR) imagery, which is classed as a pixel measurement of 50cm2 or decrease, and an in depth again catalogue of knowledge. The imagery is free to make use of and distribute for non-commercial functions. However there’s a catch – it’s not current; there’s usually a one- or two-year lag in protection, relying on the nation. For particular person initiatives, the funds and the way an output will probably be used (whether or not public or non-public) will largely dictate which assets may be delivered to bear.
From an analytical perspective, challenges in identification and interpretation boils right down to picture high quality. For instance, the spatial decision, extent of cloud cowl, positioning of the solar (creating various lengths of shadow), and whether or not the picture is obvious or has been blurred by atmospheric distortion. Viewing the identical geographic space over time, the place higher imagery offers context and readability, may also help keep away from false positives and negatives. Likewise, having prime quality reference photos and 3D modelling of, say, army autos can enhance confidence when figuring out and labelling observations.
What are your future objectives and aspirations for “Contested Floor“? Are there any particular areas of the Russia-Ukraine battle that you just plan to concentrate on in your upcoming work?
There may be much more to be completed! As I discussed above, on this new info age, there’s an abundance of publicly launched information at our fingertips. In the interim, and as new imagery is launched, I’ll proceed my concentrate on Russia’s warfare towards Ukraine, with the intention of making extra substantive written evaluation that fuses findings with different open-source investigations. And, as I delve deeper into a wide range of case research sorts, I’m rising rising excited by tradecraft finest observe. It because of this that I’m creating studying aids to assist others working on this discipline.
Concurrently, I’m busy establishing connections with stakeholders within the UK and internationally. I need to hear from the total spectrum of finish customers – from the deep subject material specialists taking a historic perspective on warfare and battle, to these on the forefront of present affairs, verifying occasions, creating coverage choices, and pursuing authorized redress. Long run, I plan on increasing my evaluation to incorporate different international locations and time intervals. The place I look subsequent will rely on the wants of civil society and the supply of images to get my enamel into.
What’s a very powerful recommendation you could possibly give to younger students of Worldwide Relations and Politics?
It’s essential to grasp how authorities and worldwide organisations function in observe – the waypoints, gatekeepers, and mechanisms that sit behind collective and unilateral choice making. Committees, resolutions, white papers, and memorandums could sound boring and bureaucratic, however they underpin the coverage structure and processes that result in actual world impact. In the event you can create a psychological map of those system of methods, you may higher navigate the place you match into the broader image. Go to parliament, congress, or wherever govt choices are mentioned and made. Learn the way governance, diplomacy and army technique is utilized in observe, and use this to situate your research. Having this grounded consciousness gives you a a lot better vantage level to form considering and create impactful, data-driven analysis that may inform debate.
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